CONTEXTUALIZATION
At the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2015, the Paris Agreement was adopted. Its primary goal is to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. Each signatory country set greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
Brazil’s updated 2023 NDC establishes the goal of reducing emissions by 48.4% by 2025 and 53.1% by 2030 (compared to 2005 emission levels). Additionally, it reiterates the long-term objective of achieving climate neutrality by 2050.
Key regulatory and public policy instruments guiding Brazil’s climate mitigation and adaptation efforts include:
- the Forest Code (Law 12.651/12), which established, among other environmental governance tools, the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) and Environmental Reserve Quotas (CRA);
- the Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the Legal Amazon (PPCDAm); and
- the Plan for Adaptation to Climate Change and Low-Carbon Agriculture (ABC+ Plan).
To meet these commitments, particularly through the effective implementation of the Forest Code and the ABC+ Plan, Brazil must establish or enhance public policies to reduce deforestation, based on robust data about land-use dynamics in the Amazon and various incentives for forest conservation and restoration.
This project plays a key role in producing updated and consolidated studies to support policies and actions related to these issues.
THE PROJECT
The project consists of two components, each with specific products:
Component 1: Studies on the implementation of the Forest Code and its effects on achieving Brazil’s NDC and reducing GHG emissions (including forest restoration efforts); and the development of a methodology to assess the socio-environmental impacts of major infrastructure projects in the Amazon, including deforestation and emissions.
Product 1.1: Geospatial database with an updated version of the CAR, land-use change trajectories in the Amazon, and analysis of impacts on the Forest Code.
Product 1.2: Scenario analysis of the allocation of undesignated public lands and its impact on deforestation in the Amazon.
Product 1.3: Analysis of the Environmental Reserve Quotas (CRA) market.
Product 1.4: Report with projections for forest restoration and emissions under different public policy scenarios.
Product 1.5: Methodology for assessing the impact of major infrastructure projects in the Amazon, including relevant case studies.
Component 2: Studies on the implementation of the ABC+ Plan and its effects on GHG emissions reduction; projections of growth trends in agricultural production and productivity and their effects on the Amazon; and modeling of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector.
Product 2.1: Survey of integrated agricultural systems in the Amazon and their impacts.
Product 2.2: Validation of a methodology for mapping and monitoring integrated agricultural systems using satellite imagery.
Product 2.3: Simulations of the future of agricultural production and environmental protection in the Amazon.
Product 2.4: Modeling the impact of climate change on agricultural production in the Amazon.
INTERVENTION LOGIC
This project falls under the “Sustainable Production” (1) and science, innovation and economic instruments” (4) components of the logical framework of the Amazon Fund.
Under the "Promotion of sustainable productive activities" component, the project contributes to the direct outcome of identifying sustainable economic activities that utilize forests and biodiversity.
Under the "Regulatory and economic instruments (including science, technology, and innovation activities)" component, the project contributes to the direct outcome of generating, disseminating, and utilizing knowledge and technologies for biodiversity conservation, deforestation monitoring and control, and land-use planning.
