The project is structured around two core components. The main activities carried out under each component are presented below.

Component 1 – Research on the implementation of the Forest Code and its contribution to achieving Brazil’s NDC and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions; and development of a methodology to assess the socio-environmental and deforestation-related impacts (and associated GHG emissions) of major infrastructure projects in the Amazon, including: (i) land use and land cover maps; (ii) legal reserve deficits and surpluses by property; (iii) historical land-use trajectories in the Amazon; and (iv) agricultural production data.

Output 1.1 – Geospatial database and Forest Code analysis.
A methodology for updating the Rural Environmental Registry (CAR) was developed and applied across all states of the Legal Amazon, resulting in the consolidation of a land tenure map of private properties and a map of public lands. In partnership with the National Institute for Space Research (INPE), annual land use and land cover maps for the Legal Amazon (2000-2022) were also produced. These datasets will support analyses of compliance with the Forest Code, land concentration, and land-use trajectories. Available at: https://restore-plus.github.io/amz-maps/ (English).

Output 1.2 – Analysis of allocation scenarios for undesignated public lands.
An updated mapping of public lands in the Legal Amazon was completed, including Indigenous lands, quilombola territories, protected areas, military areas, public forests, and rural settlements, with preliminary identification of undesignated public lands. The results will support the development of land-allocation scenarios and analyses of their environmental and economic impacts. Available at: https://zenodo.org/records/18806312

Output 1.3 – Analysis of the Environmental Reserve Quotas (CRA) market.
Preliminary studies were carried out to define the methodology for analyzing the CRA market. Progress in this activity depends on the completion of the updated land tenure map and the identification of Legal Reserve deficits and surpluses for each property, as provided for under Output 1.1.

Output 1.4 – Forest restoration and emissions projections.
Progress was made in adapting the MAgPIE model (Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment) to the Brazilian and Amazon contexts. This step is required for the development of forest restoration scenarios and the assessment of their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. Completion of the model is expected to support future project analyses.

Output 1.5 – Assessment of the impacts of major infrastructure projects in the Amazon.
Preliminary studies were conducted to define the methodology for assessing the impacts of major infrastructure projects in the Amazon. Further progress depends on completion of the MAgPIE-Brazil adaptation, which will provide the basis for the planned analyses.

Component 2 – Research on the implementation of the ABC+ Plan and its effects on emissions reduction; projections of agricultural production and productivity growth trends and their impacts on the Amazon; and modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural production.

Output 2.1 – Survey of integrated agricultural systems in the Amazon and their impacts.
A survey of integrated agricultural systems (crop-livestock and crop-livestock-forestry systems) was conducted using rural credit data. The results are supporting the development of a methodology to assess the impacts of these policies on the territory, including studies on the restoration and conversion of degraded pastures.

Output 2.2 – Methodology for mapping and monitoring integrated agricultural systems.
A review of the specialized literature was conducted to identify production systems with potential for remote sensing-based mapping, particularly crop-livestock integration (CLI), crop-livestock-forestry integration (CLFI), and agroforestry systems (AFS). The findings will support the development of a methodology for mapping and monitoring these systems using satellite imagery across the Legal Amazon.

Output 2.3 – Simulations of the future of agricultural production and environmental protection in the Amazon.
Exploratory analyses were carried out using the standard configuration of the MAgPIE model. The development of forward-looking scenarios for agricultural production and environmental protection depends on the completion of the model’s adaptation to the Brazilian context, which is currently underway within the project. Available at: https://fgv-agro.github.io/emissions-report-1/ and https://fgv-agro.github.io/emissions-report-2/ (English).

Output 2.4 – Modeling the impacts of climate change on agricultural production.
Historical and projected climate datasets for the years 2030, 2040, and 2050 were organized and consolidated. These datasets will serve as the basis for modeling the potential impacts of climate change on Brazilian agricultural production. Available at: https://zenodo.org/records/21005738

The studies still under development will be made available by FGV throughout the upcoming monitoring cycles. Project activity reports are available at: https://agro.fgv.br/relatorios

Scientific Committee and coordination with public institutions

A Scientific Committee composed of specialists from the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) and the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe) was established to provide technical oversight of the project. During the reporting period, the committee held a meeting to validate the methodological foundations of the studies.

Coordination and alignment activities were also carried out with the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (MMA), the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MAPA), Inpe, the Ministry of Management and Innovation in Public Services (MGI), and the Brazilian Forest Service (SFB). These activities included technical meetings and information-sharing initiatives to support project implementation.